It’s time! The big dance has arrived for Gridiron fans. Check out the Punting Stars NFL Playoffs Wildcard Weekend Preview below!
Oakland Raiders +3.5 @ Houston Texans
No Derek Carr means this line is probably five points below where it would be. That speaks volumes to the development of Carr as a QB and as a leader.
The Texans have recently switched their starting QB for form, not injury reasons and although Savage isn’t a great player it feels like the Texans believe in themselves more with him at the helm.
The Raiders are the 23rd ranked DVOA defense and have leaked points and yards all year despite winning a lot of Football games.
To stop the Houston run game they’ll have to be at their very best.
Stud DE Khalil Mack should be able to trouble Savage though and the key to the game might be Oakland’s ability to convert small chances into turnovers.
The Texans defense is still their staple (7th in DVOA) and they have been terrific at home this season building a 7-1 record.
Betting strategy
We were tempted to bet at 3 but the spread moving to that tricky number of 3.5 makes it a no bet game now.
Detroit Lions +8 @ Seattle Seahawks
Detroit had a stranglehold on the NFC North and let it slip, they now have to travel to Seattle instead of hosting a playoff game in the Motor City.
The Lions haven’t won outside of a dome all season long and lost the last three games of the regular season. To say they are limping into the playoffs would be an understatement.
Luckily for them, they face the Seattle Seahawks who are not exactly setting the world on fire either.
Seattle rank 9th in overall DVOA, haven’t been able to hit the lofty heights defensively and struggle to block offensively.
They were able to maintain the 12th Man Fortress of a home-field advantage though going 7-1 at home this season.
RELATED: Seattle’s exceptional home-field advantage
We were sweating on the opportunity to bet against the Seahawks but unfortunately they’ve drawn the Lions who we just can’t trust in the elements.
Betting strategy
No recommended bets at this stage.
Miami Dolphins +10 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami head coach Adam Gase is still up in their air over starting Ryan Tannehill who seems to be miraculously recovering from what was billed as a season-ending injury.
That certainly makes betting on this game tricky because Miami are possibly a field goal better with a healthy Tannehill against a Steelers defense that is still suspect against the deep ball.
The Steelers do have arguably the best player in the league (Le’Veon Bell, below) and the offense has the potential to put points up in bunches at any given time.
Although they have been anything but convincing this season and despite their late season win- streak they are capable of turning in a shocker.
They are the 5th ranked DVOA overall team compared to a lowly 17th for the Dolphins but there is just no way we can take on the high line of 10.
Betting strategy
Watch for status on Tannehill but this looks to be a no-bet game for us.
New York Giants +4.5 @ Green Bay Packers
Comfortably the best game of the weekend we have to wait until last for. Giants at Packers!
If you missed the early line of +7.5 New York you’ll be very disappointed to know that the line has been bet all the way down to +4.5 for the Giants road playoff game against the red-hot Packers who are gunning for seven straight victories.
There is an air of optimism about the Giants largely based off of the play on the defensive side of the ball where the Giants went from the 30th ranked DVOA defense to the 2nd ranked in the space of 12 months.
The Giants receiving corp was confident enough to head down to Miami on their ‘off day’. Crazy to see that during a playoff game week!
So OBJ, Sterling Shepard, Victor Cruz, and Roger Lewis flew to Miami last night, went clubbing, and are on a boat. Living life. #Giants pic.twitter.com/SE6QqfuYfT
— Justin Witmondt (@JustinWitmondt) January 2, 2017
The game shapes as a battle between offense (Green Bay) and defense (New York), with Green Bay only three spots higher in overall DVOA ranking.
Rodgers and the Green Bay coordinators will have studied the tape and know that the key to beating the Giants defense is throwing deep as the likes of Landon Collins and Jonathan Casillas have snuffed out screen passes and quick patterns all season long.
A healthy Janoris Jenkins back in coverage is huge for the Giants who will likely be left one-on-one with Rodgers best weapons to allow the Giants to keep blitzing and playing aggressively.
Betting strategy
It’s a shame the early line isn’t there but we can still suggest a small bet on the Giants with the 4.5 start.