What a huge day of jumps racing at Ballarat on Sunday on what will be a Heavy 10+ surface (similar to this day last year). You will need hard fit horses that can certainly handle the very heavy conditions.
Race 1 – Marathon Hurdle 4000m
3 Gold Spur can return to the winners circle over jumps here, he loves the heavy conditions and strangely enough, being by Jetspur, gives every indication he’ll run the distance right out. Comes off a solid win on the flat in heavy conditions and tuned up for this with a Hurdle Trial win here last Tuesday. He’s primed for this! Hardest to beat will be the 4 Murphy’s Delight who has no heavy track form but comes off good placings in two very strong hurdle races. 1 Abebe will lead for a long way and 5 Monte Carlo is also in the mix in this small field now with Tremec out. Really a race in two for mine.
3-4-1-5
Race 2 – Maiden Hurdle 3400m
Tough race with a few chances in my view. Going with one at a bit of value here in 9 They Call Me Sven ($34 currently available) for master trainer Eric Musgrove. Proven in heavy conditions and I’m taking a line through his third to Chequered Flag at the Bool on what was a heavy 10+ three starts ago. Was disappointing then at Bendigo before his last start run on the flat at Moe. Hardest to beat will be the 3 Harvard but he’s unproven on soft/heavy conditions and it will be a master training performance for him to win this at his first try over jumps. His jockey believed he didn’t handle the conditions at his only run on a heavy track, albeit the tempo will be very different here. 11 Shez Ektraordinary coming from the Laming stable that has produced a couple of nice jumps winners recently and she handles the wet goes in, with the 6 Masterson, who gets through the ground but for me it’s also a slight query whether he can win first try over the jumps, however he’s sure to have been well prepared for it by Paddy Payne.
9-3-11-6
Race 3 – Maiden Hurdle 3200m
Liked Bonnard here, but with him out I’m going with 3 Cougar Express. Concerned about him handling the heavy conditions but he has good flat form, has jumps experience and comes through a strong form race last start over the jumps. 10 Dane Hussler was my top pick first start over the jumps at Sale and I thought she was disappointing there. Her flat form was very good and she’d been trialled up for that but experience may also see her improve here. I won’t be leaving 5 Hollow Log out, may even have something each way at the odds (currently $19 available). Loves the heavy and was a very close 2nd in a Maiden Hurdle this day last year, but he’s not the safest jumper having had a couple of tumbles over time. A Steeplechase trial early in the week may have been to assist with a bit of respect for his jumps. 9 Music to Midnight goes into the mix also, although would need to improve.
3-10-5-9
Race 4 – J J Houlahan Hurdle 3200m
Great race! Going with the jumper on the way up in 9 Chequered Flag against his more experienced and season rivals. In the strong Weir stable with the services of John Allen, he’s proven in the wet, stays well and has good speed on the flat. Won his Maiden Hurdle well at the Bool. 3 Two Hats meets Hornets’ Nest better at the weights here and loves the wet. He’ll be hardest to beat with 7 Don’t Be Shy another on the way up and right in the mix and 1 Hornets’ Nest must go in.
9-3-7-1
Race 5 – Open Steeplechase 3200m
Sticking with 1 The Narcissist for the Weir/Allen combination stepping up to the fences here after two good Hurdle wins at Casterton and Bendigo. Had a very soft Steeplechase trial earlier in the week to ready him for this. 3 Kemtain, for ex champion jumps jockey Brett Scott will be hardest to beat. He won a Maiden Hurdle on this day last year, handles the wet well and while well beaten last start at Sale by Trouble Bound can improve in these conditions. Impressive last start winner 2 Trouble Bound is in the mix although the heavy track may be a query and I’m giving 4 Pentomatic one last chance. He’s in well at the weights here against Trouble Bound from their last start meeting and is overdue for a win.
1-3-2-4
Race 6 – Grand National Steeplechase 4500m
Pitting two jumps stars in Sea King and Wells in opposition here with their big weights, can one carry it to victory? This race will also tell us whether Dormello Mo is just a live hedges, open country star at Casterton or not? Gee, he’s been impressive though in this wins at Casterton and handles the heavy so for mine 3 Dormello Mo goes on top here. Meets much stronger opposition here but taking a line through Lucky Tonight and dropping in weight I think he can win. 4 I’ll’ava’alf just keeps going. He loves the wet and at the weights here against the top two I think he can beat them. 2 Wells, who has won this race twice previously, and 1 Sea King are stars, both love the wet and will appreciate the distance but I think the weight may just prove too much for them. It wouldn’t surprise though if either won. The only other horse I can entertain is 7 Over The Yardarm who was a very close 2nd to Wells last start in the Crisp Steeplechase and meets him 1.5kg better at the weights here. Has since moved to the Weir stable and gets the services of J Allen which will see him in the mix.
3-4-2-1
Best Bet: R5 – 1 The Narcissist
Best Value: R3 – 5 Hollow Log
Good luck and good punting everybody.