The 2017 Caulfield Cup is shaping up to be an interesting betting race but it certainly looks short of staying talent. No wonder the MRC explored the option of a WFA Cup.
A cool change is set to hit Melbourne on Thursday that will bring some rain that should only serve to make the track play very well. Can’t imagine it gets past a five which should make it a very even and fair racing surface.
The Rail goes out 6m after being in the True position for the Wednesday Blue Sapphire meeting.
2017 Caulfield Cup Betting Odds
Odds grid above courtesy of Punters.com.au
The 2017 Caulfield Cup has been a funny ante-post betting market with Humidor and Bonneval becoming all the rage before leaving a few punters scratching their heads after the final lead-up runs while Admire Duece from the Australian Bloodstock team was a late withdrawal in dramatic circumstances today.
Amelie’s Star was dominant when braining Almandin at Flemington and does stay well down in the weights for Darren Weir – she was well backed that day and has been well backed since qualifying for the Caulfield Cup.
Johannes Vermeer ran out of his skin in the Caulfield Stakes on Saturday. Katy Mallyon comes off and Ben Melham jumps on and he is now the current 2017 Caulfield Cup favourite.
2017 Caulfield Cup Speed Map
At this stage, it is very speculative in terms of expected settling positions particularly for those drawn in wide barriers but below we have worked out a rough guide.
The way Caulfield has been playing certainly has favoured those on pace and with the rail out 6m and a Good track expected once again it will likely be no disadvantaged to be in the first few turning for home.
What impact will that have on the map and tactics? The biggest winners in our opinion after the barrier draw are Jon Snow and Johannes Vermeer.
The likes of Amelie’s Star, Bonneval and Humidor are all capable of settling closer to the speed, do they do that or gamble on the fact that their front-running rivals won’t get it all their own way?
Key Form Races
Bonneval was brilliant in the Underwood here at Caulfield (See below)
The Caulfield Stakes was run on the weekend and featured the current favourite, click HERE to watch it.
Humidor was dominant in the Makybe Diva (see below) before a ‘flat run’ last start.
While we are here, would be remiss of us not to mention last years Caulfield Cup Champion, Jameka who dominated her rivals to win easily.
One of few middle distance stars we have in Australia at present.
Keep in mind also that the Caulfield Cup is a key form race for the Melbourne Cup. Check out all of the dual nominations and how they handle the 2400m Caulfield Cup because over the years it has proven to be a solid feeder race.
Caulfield-Melbourne Cups doubles completed over the years: Ethereal (2001), Might and Power (1997), Doriemus (1995), Let’s Elope (1991), Gurner’s Lane (1982), Galilee (1966), Even Stevens (1962), Rising Fast (1954), Rivette (1939), The Trump (1937) and Poseidon (1906)
2017 Caulfield Cup Verdict
Very confident that Jon Snow runs a huge race here. His run on Saturday was terrific, his trainer Murray Baker sets his horses for these staying races perfectly and the horse has genuine staying pedigree.
He maps absolutely perfectly and looks a terrific each-way bet at $11 currently.
I’m also happy to save on his stablemate Bonneval who had excuses last Saturday and didn’t need to do anything other than blow some steam off.
4YO mares have a terrific record in this race and as mentioned earlier Murray Baker is a genius.