The official Punting Stars guide to surviving (and thriving) throughout 2017 Melbourne Cup Day.
For the first time in many years I’ve found myself excited about the support card and the value opportunities it is presenting.
After going through the database we have found plenty of early overlays and will be pretty active in betting throughout.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m
Stack of first-starters bolting down the straight over five furlongs to kick things off. Of the two tried horses we clearly have Setsuna on top. She got the job done for us at the Valley and her front-running style and subsequent fitness advantage is a big drawcard here. Not to mention the fact she’s been to the races before, expect she can run a few of these off their legs and at $5 looks worth a small bet taking on some of the ‘unknown’ aspects of the race.
Backing Setsuna ($5.00)
Flemington Race 2 – 1700m
Good race! Invincibella is flying and does rate highly here although at $2.70 she offers little value. The blinkers come off Hell Or Highwater and we know she’ll go forward – she’s been up for so long though, might not have much left in the tank. Ratings have her as a serious overlay but we will be tempering our bet slightly due to the ‘eye test’.
Backing Hell Or Highwater ($6.50)
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m
Messy race we can’t get a good handle on. Ozi Choice looks ‘overs’ at $23 and he’s the only runner we are interested in speccing at this stage. Looks a race where the map will decide the winner and track pattern/conditions will play into that calculation. Will update if we get a more definitive position in the race.
Something small each-way Ozi Choice ($23.00)
Flemington Race 4 – 2800m
A very dirty stayers race… some slow and boring horses in this bunch. Swacadelic is a big price, most of these horses are very hard to catch and he is no exception. However he maps well, Aaron Purcell has his team flying and young Benny Allen gets the ride. Ubin Thunderstruck perhaps due for some luck and can win, as can Sin To Win, Yogi (blinkers on!) and Berisha. Certainly not getting too involved here though.
Something small each-way Swacadelic ($26.00)
Flemington Race 5 – 1000m
Our type of race! Madeenaty was disappointing at Moonee Valley but has ran ‘well’ here a few times. Running out of patience though and at the price have to risk her. Property is a proper horse who should improve off her first-up effort – top pick! Nature Strip drawn wide has shown promise at first two starts and will likely end up the best of the bunch. No knock Peret who if she handles the straight is a winning chance.
Backing Property ($4.40)
Flemington Race 6 – 1400m
Nothing too exciting to see here! Our Crown Mistress has come up favourite but appears short enough around the $3 mark. If the rail stays relatively hot she will take some catching, though. Counterplay is capable if gets the right run as is Warranty
Staying out for now – want $3.50+ for Our Crown Witness
Flemington Race 7 – 3200m
The great race! Our full ratings and comments for each runner is RIGHT HERE. For those just after the tips, see below!
Rekindling, Big Duke and Amelie’s Star our three bets!
Flemington Race 8 – 1800m
One of the better races on the card. A few angles to weigh up. None more than Mr Garcia who is having his first start in Australia (3rd emergency currently) – if he gets a start we will be backing him confidently. Lubiton is racing very well and has received some great rides of late. In the mix once again as is Life Less Ordinary. This is all about one runner for us though…
Hopeful Mr Garcia goes around, keen!
Flemington Race 9 – 1200m
Nice little sprint race. Expect that they will be starting to fan more to the middle and outside by now. Faatinah is top pick here, drawn ideally and looks to be finding his way again. Bowman ON is a positive booking. Looking to save on Calanda, had they drawn mid to wide we’d be betting up more. Expecting improvement second-up and need her on our side for a small result.
Backing Faatinah ($6.00) and Calanda ($7.00)
Flemington Race 10 – 1400m
Dare we say it… typical mares race! Quilista will run well here, maybe lacks the class but maps and ticks boxes. She is overs but will have most of the bet on the place side. They seem to take it in turns winning and the betting moves are often hard to see coming in these races. Treading carefully.
Something small 1 x 3 Quilista ($12.00)
We hope you all enjoy the big day and fingers crossed we all back a few winners.
Good luck! Punt well and punt responsibly.
Punting Stars Team