THE NRL is back for another year after another typically controversial off season, but thankfully the storylines have been mostly confined to player movements and club issues rather than smear and scandal.
What those juicy changes mean for punters is a number of angles to exploit throughout the home and away season, which kicks off on Thursday night when the Dragons host the Broncos.
While the factors above have contributed to some of the five pre-season futures plays suggested below, we’ve also called on a few glaring statistical factors and analysis of individual clubs’ draws to find the value.
Check out our five best futures bets heading into the 2018 NRL season below and let us know what you think @puntingstars on Twitter and Facebook.
BACK: Melbourne Storm to win the Grand Final/Premiers @ $7.00 (Betfair)
The Storm dominated the 2017 season and even without Cooper Cronk in the spine have enough ingredients in the melting pot to go back to back. Cameron Smith is the reigning best player in the game, Billy Slater is fit from the outset in 2018 and Craig Bellamy has made some typically shrewd acquisitions in the forward pack.
The Storm also have a tasty draw to start the season: Bulldogs (A), Tigers (H), Cowboys (H), Sharks (A), Tigers (A), Knights (H). Such an opening six weeks augers well for a side of this calibre to secure five or six wins and there won’t be anything like $7.00 available for them to win the 2018 Premiership then.
BACK: Canberra Raiders over 11.5 regular season wins @ $1.95 (Ladbrokes)
The Raiders were one of the big disappointments of 2017, missing the finals with just 11 wins on the board come the end of the regular season. The damning statistic here though was that they won just two of the 10 matches they played which were decided by a single score.
Thus it seems rather interesting that bookmakers have all but projected an identical season from the Raiders. Despite losing Josh Hoffman, they will be counting on the likes of Blake Austin, Joey Leilua and the enigmatic Jordan Rapana to return to form – and so will we. Should that happen, the Raiders will be closer to the top four than bottom eight.
BACK: Canterbury Bulldogs under 9.5 regular season wins @ $1.95 (Bet 365)
Turmoil has engulfed the Dogs following a calamitous 2017 with the coach sacked, the board replaced and key players departing. There will be no greater loss than former captain James Graham to the Dragons, Josh Reynolds to the Tigers is also a major blow and the Moses Suli saga is a distraction they didn’t need.
They haven’t been handed a kind start to the season either – drawing both the Panthers and Roosters twice as well as the Broncos, Cowboys and Storm all in the first nine weeks. Such a set up makes them strong candidates to be in the bottom four by mid-May and facing a long road to recovery.
BACK: Manly Sea Eagles to miss the top eight @ $2.15 (Ladbrokes)
The old ‘what goes up, must come down’ rule of gravity doesn’t always directly apply to sport but Manly look prime candidates to drop off the cliff in 2018. They defied all expectations last term to squeeze into the top eight with a 14-10 home and away record but things haven’t gone to plan since.
Trent Barrett’s squad lacks depth across the park, in no area more so than the halves where Daly Cherry-Evans has no standout partner after Blake Green’s departure. They also scraped home in a number of close games last year – their record in matches decided by a single score or less was 6-2 – and it won’t take many of those results to turn to see them slip down the ladder.
WATCH: North Queensland Cowboys to win the Grand Final/Premiers @ $6.00 (Betfair)
Keep a very close eye on the Cowboys in the opening weeks. They have been touted as potential Premiers after coming within 80 minutes of the title last year despite a horrific injury toll. But Thurston, Scott et al are back and ready to fire in 2018 and importantly their home draw looks juicy.
However the opening three rounds pits them against the plucky Sharks (H), a grudge match against the Broncos (A) and a Grand Final rematch against the Storm (A). A strong start will see their Premiership price plummet, and similarly close losses may be enough to see it drift to become a back option.