5 Tips For AFL First Goal Scorer Punters

For casual AFL punters betting on the first goal scorer each week is one of the most popular bookmaker options. We’ll give you some tips to help find the best value in the market.

We’ll prefix the tips below by saying that First Goal Scorer markets are almost always high margin, money spinners for bookmakers.

However, there can often be a small edge in them and a lot of casual players will still bet on them.

That’s why we’ve decided to share some tips so you can either back more winners, or improve your current margin on the product.

1. Look for players that are playing gainst opponents that leak points to different types of forwards. IE small forwards might have success against a team with larger bodied defenders who aren’t as quick.
2. Look for players on teams that are notorious for starting fast and conversely avoid slow starting teams like Geelong have been so far in 2017.
3. Certain players kick much more of their goals earlier in quarters compared to late due to midfield and bench rotations. This can bring about value in the first goalscorer market but isn’t as relevant to a market like ‘most goals’. Ben Brown from the Kangaroos has kicked the first goal three times already this year (in six weeks!). He’s also scored the first goal in four other quarters throughout the game suggested he starts quarters well.
4. Avoid midfielders who start on the ball or on the interchange but are noted goal kickers. Players like Dustin Martin who are capable of kicking bags of goals but it’s usually as the game develops that the coach will send them forward. Conversely, key forwards like Jack Riewoldt often start the game in a dangerous position directly in front of goal.
5. The most important tip we can give is; always shop for the best price! As they are high margin markets with lots of selections there is often a big discrepancy between prices of players to kick the first goal. Grabbing each player at the top of the market can dramatically reduce the bookmakers margin and put the odds back more in the punters favor. We have noticed that Betfair is most often the best avenue for taking top odds on first goal scorer bets.

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