September has arrived and the Footy fans have been treated to two mouth watering AFL qualifying finals to kick off Week 1 of the finals series.
I see value in both of the qualifying finals, best bets and game previews below!
Adelaide v Greater Western Sydney
Where and when: Adelaide Oval @ 7:20pm Thursday Night
All season I’ve wanted this rematch after the Crows stunned the Giants in Round 1. I’m of the belief that the quality the Giants have through the midfield can really worry the Crows and the health of Rory Sloane becomes so important for that reason.
I think it will be unlikely that Sloane plays. There is just too much to risk and it’s not the 1980’s when clubs weren’t accountable for player welfare and long-term health. The Crows do have a second chance and I think they’ll make Rory sit this week out.
The Crows game style is based around winning clean ball of half back and moving the ball quickly forward to their star studded forward line. The Giants biggest challenge will be stopping that rebound. Rory Laird had 40 possessions in Round 1 doing as he pleased across half back.
Casual hand in pocket lean from @rorylaird during the AA team photo
I’m going to need an official comment from @Brodiesmith33 @Adelaide_FC pic.twitter.com/CwD7ViJOho
— Scott (@Sportrepreneur) August 30, 2017
The Giants combat this by controlling the Football and hitting targets going into forward 50 (they’ve got plenty of quality to hit) and by pressuring the ball frantically as it comes out.
The pressure aspect is tough when you’ve got Lobb, Cameron, Johnson, Smith and Patton all rotating through the forward 50 so hitting targets and making the Crows key defenders accountable will be the most likely path to victory.
Can Shane Mumford keep Sam Jacobs under wraps?
Can the Crows match the class through the middle of Sheil, Coniglio, Kelly, Deledio and Scully?
It is set to be a cracking match and the Giants have become somewhat underrated.
Suggested bet: GWS H2H $2.75 CrownBet/Ladbrokes & +14.5
Geelong v Richmond
Where and when: MCG @ 7:50pm Friday Night
First things first, it is a huge disadvantage to Geelong that this game is being played at the MCG not down at the old Kardinia Park.
The MCG suits the Richmond game style perfectly and they have played very well at the ground all year long. In fact, they’ve only lost their twice all year and were leading for large periods in both games (Sydney and Fremantle).
The Cats are flying of late and have hit their straps without fearless leader Joel Selwood who looks almost certain to come back into the side for Friday’s game. His clash with Tigers captain Trent Cotchin is almost as exciting as the Dangerfield and Martin showdown. Will Hardwick send Dion Prestia to one of the cats prime movers or instead make him run with Mitch Duncan who has had perhaps his best season this year.
No words needed ❤️ pic.twitter.com/7oLfL975Xw
— Trent Cotchin (@tcotchin9) August 31, 2017
How will the likes of Mackie and Lonergan go when they are dragged up the ground and asked to double back on the likes of Caddy, Butler and Rioli. Speaking of Josh Caddy, who comes out of this red hot Tiger side to make way for him? Surely they can’t drop Townsend and Jack Graham has looked a 200 game player in the making in his short stint with the seniors.
Great problems to have for Hardwick who has one of the healthiest lists I can remember entering a finals series. The overlay isn’t as substantial as the bet on GWS but I still think there is some fat in the Tigers H2H price.
Suggested bet: Richmond H2H $2.15 CrownBet/Ladbrokes
Enjoy the two AFL Qualifying Finals punters and good luck with your investments over the entire first week of the AFL Finals series.