The fluctuations in the AFL Premiership market last year were terrific for AFL Trading offering up many opportunities for punters to get in and out of positions.
This year it is incredibly tight at the top of the betting market.
Port Adelaide recruited aggressively and are considered a legitimate challenger as are Geelong after bringing GAJ home.
Essendon and Melbourne are two teams tipped to ‘make the leap’ while Sydney, Adelaide, GWS, and Richmond are all taking up a similar amount of market percentage.
Betfair early AFL Premiership market below.
AFL Trading: Early Rounds ( One – Five) Premiership Strategy and Advice
| Team | Current Betfair Premiership Odds | Projected wins | Notes through five rounds |
| Richmond | $8.80 | 3-2 or 4-1. | Away to Adelaide otherwise should be favs in all other games. Four of First Five At the G |
| Adelaide | $8.00 | 3-2 or 4-1. | Two of first five at AO. Road trip to SCG and hosting last years premiers make it a solid start. |
| Sydney | $7.40 | 3-2 or 2-3 | Brutal start! Away to WC and WB and host Port, GWS and ADE. Could start as bad as 1-4, steer clear in early Premiership market. |
| GWS | $9.00 | 4-1 or 3-2 | Cosy start. Just the one game against a team in top 8 last year. Trip to SCG to face Swans the obvious 50-50 swing game. |
| Geelong | $9.00 | 3-2 | A trip to Perth for WA and Adelaide for PA as well as two at the MCG including Easter game v Hawks. |
| Port Adelaide | $9.60 | 3-2 | Reasonable start that includes a trip to the SCG and hosting Geelong. On paper, they should win three games and stay ‘in contention’. |
| Essendon | $15.00 | 3-2 or 2-3 | Host the Crows and Power and then have three games against non-finalist Melb teams from 2017. 3-2 is their pass-mark. |
| Melbourne | $16.00 | 3-2 or 2-3 | Only game out of Melbourne in first five is to the Gabba but do play Geelong and Richmond. |
| Western Bulldogs | $24.00 | 2-3 or 3-2 | Host Swans but travel to GWS and Fremantle. Early acid tests. |
| Hawthorn | $27.00 | 2-3 or 3-2 | First five in Melbourne (four at the G) but do face Richmond and Geelong. 3-2 would be a good start. |
| Collingwood | $30.00 | 2-3 | Three genuine winnable games, hosting GWS and a trip to AO (Crows) to start. 3-2 likely best case. |
| St Kilda | $42.00 | 3-2 or 2-3 | Four of first five at Etihad (where they fly) but two of those are Giants and Crows. |
| West Coast | $55.00 | 3-2 or 2-3 | Two trips to Melb (soft ones) and host Sydney and Geelong at home. 3-2 is doable. |
| Fremantle | $75.00 | 2-3 | Three winnable games. Two that will be a test. 2-3 |
| Carlton | $90.00 | 2-3 or 1-4 | Four of first five in Melbourne. Can win two? |
| Brisbane | $150.00 | 1-4 or 2-3 | Two winnable games at the Gabba helps… |
| North Melbourne | $150.00 | 2-3 or 3-2 | Cosy start. They can win at least three of them. Maybe early surprise packet? |
| Gold Coast | $150.00 | 2-3 or 3-2 | Soft start. They’ll think they can win four of them! |
A few key takeaways from the information above…
Greater Western Sydney Giants look reasonably priced right now as a starting point for trading while the Sydney Swans given their brutally tough start are worthing holding fire on.
North Melbourne and Gold Coast are two predicted cellar dwellors who can snare a few early wins and may shorten in Top 8 markets. Conversley, if you want to back them to win the Spoon it might be worth waiting a few rounds.
Where do you think the value is (if any) in the current AFL Premiership Market?
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