Sunday Night Punters Soap-Box time!
Punters Comment: Sectional stars don’t always want more distance!
It’s carnival time which means that more and more people are interested in the weekend’s racing and more and more people have a comment or opinion about all that is happening.
Firstly, I’ll make it clear that the comments and opinions are fantastic and the industry should do everything in its power to encourage this further.
It drives interest in the sport, promotes more wagering and ignites passion among the industry participants.
However, I’ve noticed one little reverse punter’s pearl doing the rounds that really grinds my gears.
JUST BECAUSE YOUR HORSE FLASHES HOME AND RUNS FAST LATE SECTIONALS DOESN’T ALWAYS MEAN IT WILL BE SUITED UP IN DISTANCE AT IT’S NEXT START.
Now, of course, there are instances where sound late splits indicate that a horse is ready for a distance rise and a horse going strongly ‘through the line’ is a great indicator for next start success.
As a general rule though, I think it is heavily overplayed by not only punters but by trainers and owners as well in their attempts to place their horses in appropriate races.
Five Horse Racing Punting Myths
If a race was run at a slow speed, horsesĀ are entitled to run home quickly. Imagine jogging for the first 300m of a 400m race and then sprinting for the last 100m. You too would run great late splits but it doesn’t mean you’ll be better suited in an 800m running race.
Conversely, if a race is run at a frantic speed early then the late splits of horses will be quiet poor (despite often running faster overall times). These horses build a strong fitness base as a result of the fast run races and can often be advantaged when coming up against horses coming out of slow races next start.
Often when a horse rises in distance it loses its zip and final burst due to the increase in distance and greater endurance needed prior to the final sprint.
Take the 2017 Caulfield Cup for example (sectionals below). The race was run at a frantic tempo due to Sir Isaac Newton going something crazy like 16L above benchmark early.
Single Gaze had to do all of the chasing work and ran super for Kathy O’Hara but she ran slower last 400m and 200m splits than all of the other horses in the top 8.
Does this mean she will not run a strong 3200m in the Melbourne Cup in two weeks?
Wicklow Brave is a runner we know relishes 3200m and well beyond but his late sectionals were not anything to crow about either.
Finally, Johannes Vermeer had a few question marks on his ability to run out a strong 2400m but ran the third fastest last 200m of the entire field! Does that mean he want’s more distance or do you think he is better suited staying at or around 2400m or perhaps dropping back to 2000m in the Emirates?
The point is there is no exact science or blanket rules we can apply to horses when assessing form.
There are so many factors beyond the closing sectionals that go into framing an accurate market and also into deciding the optimum distance that a horse should race at.
So, next time the horse you back settles worse than midfield and flashes home to run 5th over 1200m ask yourself this; will it be better suited in a 1400m race next start? Or is a just another slow horse that you need to stop backing?