It’s arguably the most prestigious event in world sport and you better believe it, it’s only a few days away from starting. Punting Stars 2018 Masters Preview below!
Augusta, Georgia is the location for the first major on the World Golf calendar and this year is shaping up as one of the best in recent memory.
Almost all of the best players in the world are healthy (including a guy called Tiger) and most of them are in hot form.
This year’s storylines and public favourites
Tiger Woods return to form and something close to full health has been the biggest storyline of the PGA season thus far.
Tiger has won at Augusta four times before but not since 2005 but that hasn’t stopped punters betting him! He was as high as 100-1 before his comeback started but now sits at $15 on the Betfair Exchange.
Past winners at Augusta, Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson all have chalked up wins in 2018 leading into this year’s tournament. All three have been popular with the bookies in recent weeks.
Sergio also has a little bit of baby swag in his step following the birth of his daughter, Azalea (Masters theme!).
Justin Rose is another that the Twittersphere and the gambling public seems to be gravitating towards. Rose has been ultra consistent in 2018 and has been bet from $25+ into average odds of around $16 to win the tournament.
There is also a stack of talented and highly ranked younger players chasing their first win at Augusta.
Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson fit that bill.
All except Fowler have PGA tour wins to their name in 2018 which we know is a very good sign heading to Augusta.
We do note also that Fowler did win the Hero World Challenge in late November 2017.
Finally, Rory McIlroy who had a recent victory at Bay Hill needs a victory at Augusta to complete a personal grand slam of Golf’s four major tournaments.
Recent Masters Winners and how they are shaping up…
Sergio Garcia will go in as the defending champion and attempt to be the first Green Jacket winner to defend his crown since Tiger Woods in 2002.
As mentioned above, new Dad, Sergio is in good form although hasn’t played a heap of Golf lately.
Aussie Adam Scott won in dramatic fashion back in 2013. Perhaps our favourite Australian golf memory but Scott hasn’t been in great touch recently and his struggles with the flat stick are still evident.
Scott is one of the top-ranked players who has drifted dramatically in betting markets with lots of liquidity available as we speak at 80-1 on Betfair.
Danny Willett is playing so badly that they might even ask him to return his jacket while in Georgia. $620 to win on the exchange as he battles form and injury issues.
Bubba Watson is a two-time winner (2012 and 2014) that in recent times, has returned to somewhere near his best form.
He already has two wins to his name in 2018 and has been well supported in early Masters markets.
Jordan Spieth won in 2015 and had one hand on the trophy in 2016 before a Back 9 collapse when Danny Willett emerged to win.
Spieth is capable of being one of the best putters on tour but hasn’t been in great form with the flat stick. His tee-to-green game, however, is flying and we know how much he loves Augusta. T2 in 2014, winner in 2015, T2 in 2016 and T11 last year!
Augusta Course, scoring well and the predicted weather
Augusta is one of the most famous courses in the world and everything is well exposed to both the public and the oddsmakers.
The course will play somewhere around the 7800-yard range and you’ll see players using their drivers a hell of a lot this week.
Here are some of the key traits of the course to keep in mind
- Water on the Back 9 but some birdie opportunities at 15 and 16 (don’t remind Jordan Spieth)
- Swirling winds, uneven lies, and pine straw
- Fast and undulating bentgrass greens
- Four birdie opportunities and must attack Par 5’s
- Some very tough and long Par 4’s where shooting ‘Par’ is golden
We’re looking for golfers that…
- Can drive the ball long and straight (Almost all recent winners did this well)
- Will avoid bogeys (greens in regulation and SG tee-to-green helps!)
- Putt well on fast (bentgrass) greens
In recent times we’ve also seen a lot of players that were hard in the market leading in perform well and or win the event.
Winning Prices since 2011: Garcia 45/1, Willett 66/1, Spieth 12/1, Watson 28/1, Scott 28/1, Watson 55/1.
When Phil and Tiger won their respective Augusta titles they too were popular betting choices.
Of course, to win a Major at any stage you have to putt pretty well but over time The Masters has been won by players perhaps not considered to be great putters.
We speak of the likes of Willett, Garcia, Scott and Bubba Watson.
The latest weather forecast courtesy of Weather.com is below
The Masters betting market
We’ve used the odds.com.au grid to display the top chances in the market below.
Those of you reading this from the UK/Europe, be sure to take advantage of the EW specials the big European facing bookies are offering this weekend!
The majority of our trades, however, will be made using Betfair who are more often than not, the best odds.
We’ve said it many times before but will once again. Make sure you try your best to obtain the best possible odds on the golfers you want to bet.
The impact that it will have on your bottom line will be profound. Especially, in a big tournament like The Masters with bookmakers and punters being more aggressive than usual!
Punting Stars Golf Model
Our Golf betting model is currently optimized from a trading point of view as we look to establish an early position pre-tournament and add to this throughout the tournament as value opportunities arise.
Since we commenced the service via our Twitter feed in early August of 2017 the results have been really strong.
Total Bet: 130.89
Collect: 165.17
Profit: + 34.28 units
ROI: 26.19%
We are confident that we have an edge and will continue to churn a profit over time.
Follow us on Twitter for our Golf Model’s trading selections each and every week on the PGA and European Tours.
Punting Stars 2018 Masters Trades
*Please note all stakes are in accordance with a 100 unit betting bank.
Pre-tournament
0.60 Justin Rose @ 18
0.50 Bubba Watson @ 23
0.35 Jason Day @ 22
0.15 Louis Oosthuizen @ 80
0.10 Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ 160
0.05 Cameron Smith @ 250
All prices above are obtainable as at 9am Thursday morning on Betfair.
After Round 1
0.40 Henrik Stenson @ 20
0.30 Marc Leishman @ 55
0.20 Phil Mickelson @ 18.5
0.15 Charley Hoffman @ 50
0.15 Haotong Li @ 95
After Round 2
1.00 Patrick Reed @ 4.40
0.60 Rory Mcllroy @ 7.80
After Round 3
2.00 Patrick Reed @ 2.30
RESULTS
6.55 units invested
9 units returned for a 2.45 unit profit.
Hopefully, you enjoyed our 2018 Masters Preview.