It’s been moved from Eagle Farm to Doomben but it’s still the feature of the Brisbane Carnival. Check out our 2017 Stradbroke Handicap Tips!
Race 8 – 3:40PM UBET STRADBROKE HANDICAP (1350 METRES)
1.5M total prize money to be divided up as follows;
1st $1,000,000, 2nd $280,000, 3rd $130,000, 4th $60,000, 5th $30,000
GROUP 1: Handicap, Minimum Weight 52kg, Weight Raised 1.5kg, Apprentices cannot claim.
Track Type: Turf
Field Limit: 16 + 5 EM
The 16 horse Stradbroke Handicap Field
Odds grid above courtesy of www.punters.com.au
Stradbroke Handicap Race Overview
For a race being run over 1350m there is a distinct lack of on pace runners in the race and as such Jungle Edge is the likely comfortably leader on paper.
Burning Front and Hooked are also likely to race handy while Mackintosh could also race forward of midfield from barrier one as many Waller runners do when they draw inside gates.
Outside of those runners there are horses that can probably sit off the pace but not many who will be keen to make the pace meaning we will estimate the race to be run at a genuine tempo but certainly nothing above average.
This actually might play into the hands of some of the horses who have drawn wide and be back in the pack.
A bunched field will help pre-post favorite Clearly Innocent slot into the three-wide line with some cover from the wide gate.
Horses like Derryn, Impending and Kaepernick are also in that conversation with a mid-race move not out of the question.
Overall it is fair to say that this field lacks a lot of top end quality. For the feature event of the Brisbane Winter Carnival with $1.5M on the line it’s a very disappointing field.
Clearly Innocent has panels on most of them and if he’d drawn barrier 10 would probably be $3.50. His win last start was dominant and even at Doomben it’s hard to see any horse other than the one he ran down last in Jungle Edge being able to beat him on Saturday. Especially considering he’s been set for this race and should only improve off the win at Eagle Farm.
Click to watch the replay of the Kingsford-Smith Cup
Ulmann maps to get the sweet run and is set to peak third up for the gun Victorian trainer DK Weir, must respect him.
Counterattack is going well but a rain-affected track would play into his hands more and it’s hard to see him beating Clearly Innocent home after last start.
The likes of Burning Front, Hooked and Hopfgarten are solid horses but not going well enough to win this of our ratings.
Derryn is perhaps capable but has been up for so long and would need to produce something close to a peak to win. Hard to see happening given he’s been up forever. Running a place would not surprise, though.
Suggested Stradbroke Handicap Betting Strategy
The fact Clearly Innocent has drawn barrier 20 means we are getting a spoil on the price.
Bowman is the man to get him into the three-wide line with some cover back in the field and he’ll be charging down the outside of the track late.
$5 looks a ripping price and well worth a bet. Remember he’ll actually end up jumping from barrier 15, not barrier 20.
Waller’s instructions to McEvoy from barrier 1 on Mackintosh will be to be positive and he’s been set for this and the blinkers go on. He has to stay on our side as well.
1 unit on #1 Clearly Innocent @ $5 CrownBet
1 unit on #1 Clearly Innocent @ Global Tote
1 unit on #8 Mackintosh @ $8 Bet365