Super Saturday has arrived and we are set for a cracking day at Flemington with the rail in the true position. Read on for our Australia Cup Betting Preview!
The Australia Cup has been run and won by some of the greats of the Australasian racing turf over the years and this year’s edition looks to be a competitive one although there is no Winx or Hartnell, the countries two premier middle distance horses.
Run over 2000m around Flemington the race should be run at a genuine tempo this year with the likes of Tom Melbourne (intent to ride forward this time), Ecuador, Stratum Star, Mourinho, Real Love and Jameka all capable of being handy and setting a good pace.
We think that Tom Melbourne and Ecuador are the two most likely to get to the front and we’ll estimate the race will be run somewhere between two and four lengths above benchmark.
Image and odds comparison from punters.com.au
The first four in the market come out of the Peter Young Stakes at Caulfield.
On that day The United States was first up over 1800m and we can expect he will not only strip fitter for this but settle nice and cosy on the fence during the run. He has a strong second-up record and his stats at Flemington are better than the raw numbers would suggest.
Jameka will likely look to come across and just sit off the leaders, she’s been set for this race a long way out but is yet to win at weight-for-age level and we think that The United States might have her measure this time around. She’ll run well but not much value in the price.
Humidor is a tough one to price for us. He really sets up perfectly to produce a peak rating here but has had issues with laying in and he’ll likely have to do everything right to win. DK Weir polish helps but he is priced pretty close to a premium. We’ll be saving only on him.
The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott horses are low flying at the moment and if a horse at odds is to be backed it might be Ecuador. Had he had an easier time of it on our speed map we could consider a place bet and something small at the $17.
Stratum Star was strong through the line in the Peter Young, showing the benefit of his win over 2200m at the Gold Coast in January. Tally is probably a place chance at best while Exospheric is very tough to mark.
Suggested betting plan (assuming 100 unit bank)
#3 The United States x 0.75 units win @ 7.50
#10 Humidor x 0.25 units win @ 4.40
**Our Newmarket Handicap Preview can be found right here thanks to Scott Ferguson for sharing one of our previews again this week.
We hope you enjoyed our Australia Cup Betting Preview and hopefully it proves to be a winning one like last week as Hey Doc saluted for us in the Guineas.
Good punting!