It has arrived! The Christmas day of punting, Derby Day! Read on for our Punting Stars 2017 Derby Day Preview.
This year looks to be another cracker Derby Day so we’ve decided to go through each race at Flemington and provide our early thoughts on where betting opportunities may exist.
Flemington Race 1 – 1600m
The Carbine Club has proven to be a strong form race in years gone by and it looks like there is another very smart one in this field. Kaonic appears clearly the one to beat with Hugh Bowman jumping on for Chris Waller. He looked every bit the coming star when careering away at Randwick last start. Levendi next best after running well in the Guineas next to Royal Symphony (proven form) and does map to get the perfect run. **Kaonic looks set to be scratched so no bet on him!
Backing Levendi ($5.00)
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m
Tough race this year the Wakeful. They can all be thankful that Aloisa went to the Valley last Saturday because she would brain this lot over 2000m. Bring Me Roses hardest to beat but not value at current quote. Rimraam and Hiyaam can improve at their second run at 2000m but the real interesting runner is Glam Guru from Adelaide. Maps sweetly, sound SP profile and bred to get the trip. Thought she ran well at Moonee Valley when pattern against.
Something small Glam Guru ($15.00)
Punting Stars Opinion: The Golden Age of Punting
Flemington Race 3 – 1100m
Sheidel won here last year but this year draws hard inside instead of the outside rail – will that be a disadvantage? Has class and rates really highly if the track is playing ok on the inside. Concealer did enough fresh, can improve here and $15 looks slightly over the odds. Nieta sound against pattern at Caulfield, draws inside here and at her price while Savanna Amour is honest and a good price. Lyuba and Lake Como can win also. Good race!
Backing Sheidel ($5.00)
Flemington Race 4 – 2500m
Interesting race with Cup starts up for grabs. Venguer Masque surprised at Geelong but think that race was just average and looks at his price here. Harlem had no luck in the Caulfield Cup (below) and rates really highly here and should get the right run. She is hard fit now but the blinkers do come off. Cautious of the Waterhouse pair but both short enough, Kellstorm did beat home Almandin at the track and distance two back.
Backing Harlem ($4.60)
Flemington Race 5 – 1200m
What a race! An absolute cracker!! Houtzen and Tulip both come out of The Everest and both ran very well. Dropping to restricted grade is a big plus and Houtzen did SP below $20 that day. She’s $13 in a 3YO race here! There are a stack of talented ones dropping back in distance here, Kementari, Catchy and Trapeze Artist. Will concede the latter has had a six week freshen up and did win the Golden Rose like a proper horse! Eptimum brings different form and ran well at the Valley while Jukebox proven down the straight. Viridine and Formality in the mix but have drawn tricky.
Backing Houtzen ($12.00) and Tulip ($14.00)
Flemington Race 6 – 1600m
Fox Play and Global Glamour both good chances although short enough. Sword Of Light is a good roughie here stepping up to 1600m and getting the perfect run. Dixie Blossoms has had the odd prep winning over 1600m then dropping back to 1200m prior to this. Ticks most other boxes though and double figures! Shoals is the one to beat, want her on my side but was hoping for a slightly better price. Will wait and see on her.
No early bets but Dixie Blossoms ($12.00) and Sword Of Light ($34.00) are the major overlays
Flemington Race 7 – 2500m
A very even edition of the Derby. Really not keen to play in this race too much. Ace High and Tangled tie in together, Ace High slightly ahead of Tangled on our figures though. Busselton has a few here but Sully the one of most interest. Main Stage will appreciate getting back to Flemington I’m tipping. Astoria the best run out of that race at Geelong but looks a weak form race.
No early bets but Ace High ($4.80) top pick
Punters Comment: Flashing light runs, what do they mean?
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m
Great betting race this one, lots of angles and things to way up. Tosen Stardom never runs poorly and deserved the breakthrough Group 1 at Caulfield (below). Giving them weight here but he is a quality horse! Tom Melbourne should get better control of this speed. Egg Tart third-up and finally ready? Or is she just not going good enough? No spoils with the price same with Lucky Hussler (spewing we missed him last week!)
Hoping there will be Tosen layers (weight) and we can get a price late!
Flemington Race 9 – 1200m
Good betting race to finish the day this one. Keen Array in double figures is a gift, has good Flemington straight form and is fit. Which Illustrious Lad do we get this prep? First-up signs were pretty good! At his price though. First Among Equals did enough fresh and with Weir polish can measure up to the Vic horses. Very big watch! Plenty of other hopes but no other overlays.