The Final Day of the 2017 Cup Carnival has arrived. Check out our race-by-race Stakes Day preview!
Hopefully, you all enjoyed our Melbourne Cup preview and had a fill-up on the winner!
Stakes Day looks even on paper and there are a few races we are really keen to bet into and a few we will be treading carefully in.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m
The straight races at Flemington are becoming a bit of a raffle. The two-year-old races even more so than the mature horses. This isn’t a race we want to play in. A few first-starters that look quality but the unknown of how they handle race day and the straight at Flemington is enough for us to shoulder arms early.
No bets
Update: Having small bets on the Godolphin runners numbers 4 and 5. Both had enough excuses at their first starts. $5.50 and $20 respectively.
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m
Some plugging middle distance types over the Stakes journey of 2000m in Race 2. Map is sticky with four candidates to go forward. Tactics and execution of tactics will play a big part. Largely out of form horses and not a race we like.
No bets
Flemington Race 3 – 1600m
There are four #dualacceptors in this race with already one scratching (War Legend). Man Of His Word is a talented type who can probably measure up against this plain lot but has gone up much shorter than we expected. He gets back in the run as well. Fastnet Tempest is the best horse in the race but does some things wrong, not excited about the price. Jacquinot Bay on the other hand comes out of a fust run Group 1 Toorak. He has been posted wide more times than 97 Camry that hesitates at the roundabout but this looks his race. Maps perfectly and I can’t not see him running in the top three. Betting up on the 1 x 3 basis.
Jacquinot Bay each-way ($6.50)
Flemington Race 4 – 1400m
This is sure to be a good betting race. Most of the speed has drawn inside so the map should sort itself out very quickly. Lord Aspen is close to the best double-figure chance on the card. Maps well, loves 1400m, can carry weight and won this race last year. Lite’n In My Veins looks too short at $3.40 with the obvious form references in play. Moher not a hopeless roughie here at 20-1 as has been racing without much luck.
Pretty keen Lord Aspen ($10.00) and something small Moher ($23.00)
Flemington Race 5 – 2600m
A pretty uninspiring edition of the Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Qewy was super when fresh in the Bendigo Cup. Only improves off that run, how the hell is he $3.80? Map only concern but if he finds a spot, good night Irene! Gallic Chieftain was the ‘hard luck’ story out of the Geelong Cup after being #willowed but he isn’t the horse Qewy is. Hard to see Kiwia being able to beat home Qewy after failing when advantaged at Bendigo.
Backing Qewy ($3.80)
Related: Five Horse Racing Punting Myths
Flemington Race 6 – 2000m
Feels like we haven’t nailed a mares race since Appearance won the Myer in 2012… Prompt Response finally gets the perfect map race but she is proving bloody hard to catch. Tahanee was tough and strong on Cup Day, if she runs she’ll most likely acquit herself well. Falika sound at Moonee Valley when winning but short enough here while Heaven’s Above has had odd prep for this, faces less than ideal map but rates well otherwise. Payroll the best ‘overlay’ on early figures, she was a 1L off Stratum Star over 2200m earlier this year – that form is good enough for this.
Something small Payroll ($10.00)
Flemington Race 7 – 1200m
The Darley Classic, what a bloody ripper of a race! Almost as hot as the Everest field for 10 times less prizemoney! Really hope that it isn’t a race to the outside fence as it will ruin what should be a great race. Malaguerra was super at Moonee Valley and proven down the straight. He’s $15 and not hopeless here. Redzel $4.80 and Vega Magic $4.80 look at their prices, how has the latter come through the average run at the Valley? Impending can win but I can’t fathom taking the same price basically as Chautauqua who has never missed a place down the straight and should benefit from the ‘freshen up’ after being scratched at the barriers in the Manikato. Happy to risk Redkirk Warrior and In Her Time who’s drawn barrier one and first look down the straight.
Backing Chautauqua and Malaguerra each-way!
Flemington Race 8 – 2000m
The old Mackinnon Stakes – now the Emirates over 2000m. Cliff’s Edge looks sick unders at $6 given he is suspect at 2000m, comes from a soft restricted race and prior to that won mainly because of track pattern. Tosen Stardom was plain on Saturday, this looks an afterthought before a stud career? Sense Of Occasion will relish 2000m, not a bad roughie while Gingernuts has been somewhat set for this race since deviating from the Caulfield Cup path. Folkswood looks short! Gailo Chop puts himself into the race and has won this race before.
Something small on both Gailo Chop ($7.00) and Gingernuts ($7.00)**
**After going through race further today we are including Tosen Stardom and getting rid of any position on Gingernuts. Tosen’s 2000m+ runs in Japan are up to this and from soft draw he can settle in a close spot and be close to the rail in the run.
Flemington Race 9 – 1400m
The last race of the Cup Carnival presents a cracking each-way roughie. Sircconi carries some weight here but has superior form lines to the majority of the field and is $17! Map looks perfect to sit outside the lead or in the one-by-one. Slight negative with Nolen riding but he is a cracking bet as is Muraaqeb who should really enjoy Flemington
Backing Sircconi ($17.00) and Muraaqeb ($8.00) each-way
We hope you all enjoy the big day and fingers crossed we all back a few winners.
Good luck! Punt well and punt responsibly.
Punting Stars Team