Another Group 1 feature race for the Melbourne racing fans this weekend as Flemington hosts the Australian Guineas over 1600m this Saturday.
The Australian Guineas is a race that has been won in recent times by the likes of Palentino, Wandjina, Shamus Award, Mosheen, Miss Finland and Apache Cat – this year there is $750,000 in prize money on the table but the field would be best described as moderate.
The favorite come jump-time on Saturday will most likely be Hey Doc from the McEvoy yard.
The horse is super consistent and has had the right lead-up to run to his best.
There is however, a few other key chances worth making mention of in the race and we’ll get stuck into that now.
Australian Guineas Speed Map
We’ve got a capacity field so the speed map can be quite tricky to nail down with too much confidence.
In saying that, we can expect race favourite Hey Doc to push forward and take up a prominent position in running while Oak Door appears the likely leader.
Speed map above provided using the software at punters.com.au
The Sportsbet Market
Please note that numbers 17,18 and 19 are currently emergencies.
The Main Chances
Let’s start with the favourite #4 Hey Doc who arguably should have won the Caulfield Guineas in the Spring. He’s drawn barrier two and will likely push forward and settle in the first four or five horses. He makes his own luck and he’s tough.
He’s also set to peak third-up for the preparation and has been targetted at the race. His prior run at Flemington was outstanding and he’s clearly the horse to beat.
Could Hey Doc be the tonic McEvoy needs to lift him into the big time? #AusGuineas pic.twitter.com/F5wel5hJgl
— Racing.com (@Racing) March 2, 2017
#2 Divine Profit was the winner of the Guineas in the Spring and presents here second-up after racing fairly in a strongly run 1400m Group 1 three weeks ago.
The jury is out whether that run chasing a steady tempo leaves him vulnerable to be flat here or whether the break between runs is just right. Looks at his right price in current market around $8 or $9.
#1 Prized Icon ran better than the basic form guide would suggest first-up. His Yankee Rose form is serious quality and his staying ability and winning form at Flemington are both positives.
Drawn to get a cosy run and with some luck will be hitting the line strongly.
#3 Seaburge is sure to have his admirers on Saturday. A horse capable of producing serious ratings that looked like he needed the run first-up and is capable of improving sharply as he steps up to 1600m here.
Second in the Caulfield Guineas last Spring and with anticipated improvement on his side he does look over the odds.
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Blowout hopes
#14 Harlow Gold this filly has some serious ability and is one to keep an eye on for the staying features during the Spring. She will be incredibly hard to beat in any mares race she goes to but is capable of competing in Black Type open class as well.
Cracking first-up run over an unsuitable trip and will relish the extra distance here. Prefer her over a bit further but very wary of her and if the tempo is strong early she’ll go through the line very strongly.!
#16 Furyk will furnish out to be very, very good mare in time. Should be unbeaten this preparation and has the talent to compete although doesn’t bring the sound base some of the others do to run a strong 1600m under Group 1 pressure in a big field.
Reluctantly, we will let her go around against us this weekend.
Punting Stars Australian Guineas Betting Plan
The following bet advice for the Australian Guineas is assuming a 100 unit bank.
#2 Hey Doc 1 unit win – Half stake ‘Best Of The Best’ and half the stake at Centrebet fixed price ($3.70)
#3 Seaburge 0.5 unit win – All of the stake at the $11 fixed at various corporates
#14 Harlow Gold 0.25 unit win – All of the stake on ‘Best of The Best’