In the first of our series of case studies into NFL betting we breakdown The Home Field Advantage, how much it’s generally worth to a line, why it’s important in setting a line and how to improve our NFL betting by understanding it.
Some home fields are traditional grass and some home fields are synthetic turf. The split is now almost 50-50.
There are currently seven teams in the NFL that play in a dome – that is, there is a roof either retractable or fixed that covers the field.
Those teams are Dallas, New Orleans, Atlanta, Minnesota, Detroit, Houston and Indianapolis.
The advantages of playing in a dome are obvious. You are clear of the elements. No snow, no rain and no wind. For teams like Minnesota and Detroit
For teams like Minnesota and Detroit who play in the NFC North that is notorious for its cold weather games in Green Bay and Chicago it means some drastic changes in divisional game conditions at the pointy end of the season.
It’s no coincidence that some of the NFL’s best statistical quarterbacks in recent years have played in Dome Stadiums. Matt Ryan (Atlanta), Drew Brees (New Orleans), Tony Romo (Dallas) and even Matt Stafford (Detroit) spring to mind.
At the time of writing (Week 14, 2016) only seven of the NFL’s 32 teams had winning records (above .500) on the road. The New England Patriots are the only current unbeaten road team at 6-0 for the season.
Super Bowl winners and home fields
Let’s take a look at the last 10 Super Bowl Champions and their records at home during that season.
2015/16 Denver Broncos – 12 regular season wins, 6-2 at home.
2014/15 New England Patriots – 12 regular season wins, 7-1 at home.
2013/14 Seattle Seahawks – 13 regular season wins, 7-1 at home.
2012/13 Baltimore Ravens – 10 regular season wins, 6-2 at home.
2011/12 New York Giants – 9 regular season wins, 4-4 at home.
2010/11 Green Bay Packers – 10 regular season wins, 7-1 at home.
2009/10 New Orleans Saints – 13 regular season wins, 6-2 at home.
2008/09 Pittsburgh Steelers – 12 regular season wins, 6-2 at home.
2007/08 New York Giants – 10 regular season wins, 3-5 at home.
2006/07 Indianapolis Colts – 12 regular season wins, 8-0 at home.
Only one of the last 10 Super Bowl winners (New York Giants) had a record below .500 at home. Eight of the 10 teams had records at home of at least 6-2 on the regular season.
Timezones and NFL home fields
Let’s start with the obvious when Pacific time zone teams like San Diego, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Oakland travel to the Eastern zone to play an early, one o’clock match.
The three hour time difference essentially means that the West Coast teams are playing at what they think is 10 o’clock in the morning.
In season 2016 we’ve seen Arizona particularly struggle with this change. Embarrassing losses in Buffalo and Carolina spring to mind.
The United States uses nine standard time zones. From east to west they are Atlantic Standard Time (AST), Eastern Standard Time (EST), Central Standard Time (CST), Mountain Standard Time (MST), Pacific Standard Time (PST), Alaskan Standard Time (AKST), Hawaii-Aleutian Standard Time (HST), Samoa standard time (UTC-11) and Chamorro Standard Time (UTC+10). View the standard time zone boundaries.
The table below details the difference in time zones across the United States on Sunday the 11th of December 2016.
These time zone changes can become even more compelling when a team plays a late game on the West Coast the previous week before making the road trip to play an early game on the East Coast.
Even more so when a team is coming off a Monday Night Football game out West and is faced with a road trip East on a short week to play early.
Once again, they are professionals with the best of everything but these small factors do matter and you can bet your bottom dollar that they have an impact on those extra little half-points in the game lines.
2002-2011 Home/Road win distribution
The graphic below from SportsData provides a great snapshot of the home dominance when it comes to wins over a 10 year period in the National Football League.
In fact, over that entire sample of games only one team in the entire NFL had more wins on the road than they did at home.
That team, the New York Football Giants.
Home field matters, there is no doubt, but just how much does it matter?
A recent article posted on Pinnacle Sports noted that home teams had won 57.5% of all games by an average margin of 2.64 points since the league adopted its present 32-team format in 2002.
The betting markets however, have cottoned on to this information and the spreads from oddsmakers certainly factor in that home field advantage.
For example, in 2013 home teams won nearly 60% of straight up bets and nearly 53% against the spread (ATS) compared to home sides winning 52% of straight up bets and 44.5% ATS in 2015.
Since 2002 and the start of the 32 format the overall ATS success for home teams is just slightly above 49% indicating that oddsmakers have their adjusted home field numbers pretty close to correct over the journey.
The graphic below sourced from the Pinnacle Sports blog details the best (and worst) teams at home since the 32 format started back in 2002. That is, in terms of the points differential between home and road.
It essentially shows the teams with the largest home field advantage but also will be affected by teams who are good both on the road and at home over the sample size like New England.
NFL Home field fortress
If you’d have surveyed a group of NFL bettors and asked them what home field was the most valuable in Football over the past 14 years no doubt a good portion of them would have said Seattle.
They’d have been correct. The famous ’12th Man’ in Seattle also has the advantage of being a significant distance of travel for almost all of the teams in the NFL.
While private jets and sports science advantages have negated some of the negative factors surrounding travel, distance and certainly timezone changes still matter.
Another reason? Noise! An official from Guinness World Records recorded the crowd noise at 137.6 decibels during the Seahawks’ victory over the New Orleans Saints on Monday night.
That makes it incredibly hard for the signal callers on opposing teams to relay plays and creates all sorts of confusion.
Seattle is 62-41 (60%) since 2002 and 29-13 (69%) against the spread at home since 2009, beating the spread by an average of over 5 points per game.
Does that mean Seattle has the best home field advantage in Football? Well it certainly means they are right up there!