Welcome to Punting Stars’ NFL Week 17 Betting Preview. It’s the final regular season slate of games for the season and there is still some playoff scenarios to play out. Check out the full preview below!
Before we get stuck into the huge slate of games let’s take a look at all of the money-lines, point spreads and game totals courtesy of Pinnacle Sports.
Just the one game total on Sunday exceeds 50 and no surprises that it’s the game between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons inside the Georgia Dome.
Drew Brees and Matt Ryan sit first and third respectively for passing yards in the NFL currently with the Falcons ranked as the number one DVOA offense in the NFL and the Saints the fifth best.
There is only two double-digit point spreads on the slate (New England @ Miami and Seattle @ San Fran). Both spreads are currently trending toward 9.5 with sharp money on the home dogs.
RELATED: NFL Home Field Advantage Analysis
Game by game betting notes
Houston +3 @ Tennessee
- Houston have clinched the AFC South division and Tennessee cannot make the playoffs
- Houston are 7-1 at home this season but a worrying 2-5 on the road
- Houston are ranked as the 29th ranked overall DVOA team while Tennessee ranks 14th
- Houston’s offense is where the trouble starts, 30th rank offensive DVOA, 29th in passing yards (note this stat is skewed due to Brock Osweiler’s awful season with Tom Savage set to start again on Sunday).
- On our numbers the Titans are a ‘playoff calibre’ team that won seven of their last 11 after a sloppy 1-3 start
- The Titans will be without starting QB Marcus Mariota who’s been placed on the injured reserve
Buffalo -3.5 @ New York Jets
- The Jets are the 32nd overall DVOA ranked team (league worst) while Buffalo sit 13th
- Bills Coach Rex Ryan and his brother Rob have been fired by the organisation
- The Bills lead the NFL in rushing yards and the Jets defense ranks 29th in defensive DVOA
- Sunday could perhaps be Hall Of Fame bound CB Darrell Revis’ last game as an NFL player
- Neither team is capable of making it into the playoffs
Baltimore +1 @ Cincinatti
- Cincinatti had an awful start to the season and haven’t been able to turn it around despite the defense playing better at times.
- The Bengals have lost five games by less than a touchdown and like the Ravens are no longer in the playoff race
- The Ravens sit 11th in overall DVOA and have the third best defense in Football. The Bengals offense that is without AJ Green, TE Tyler Eifert and RBs Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill will have their work cut-out moving the ball
- Other Bengals players Vontaze Burfict, Tyler Kroft and Josh Shaw didn’t practice today. While Adam Jones, Cedric Ogbuehi, Andrew Whitworth, Shawn Williams, Will Clark, Vincent Rey were limited.
Career passer rating of QBs targeting Darrelle Revis 2007-15: 60.4 Passer rating of QBs targeting Darrelle Revis 2016: 109.8 ??
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) December 26, 2016
New York Giants +7.5 @ Washington
- The Giants have clinched a playoff berth with only a seed to be decided while the Redskins need to win and some results fall their way to get in.
- New York rank as the 12th overall DVOA team and their defense sits 2nd in the league after a fantastic turnaround season
- Giants Coach Ben McAdoo has indicated that the core unit will play at least some of the game on Sunday
- Washington ranks 9th in overall DVOA with the 4th best offense. They have a host of receiving options to keep the Giants honest.
- The health and game status of star Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins is key to this game and should be monitored up till game time
Green Bay -3.5 @ Detroit
- The NFC North is up for grabs in what is the best game of the slate!
- Either team can theoretically make the playoffs with a tie or losses to Washington and Tampa Bay
- Green Bay has won five straight and are now the 5th ranked DVOA team overall and offensively in the league
- Detroit rank a lowly 27th depsite being in a position to win the division at home
- MVP candidate Matt Stafford has reinvented himself as a player who gets rid of the ball early, expect the Lions to run plenty of screens and slants against the Packers defense
- The Packers offense has scored at least 24 points in eight of their last nine games
Jacksonville +4.5 @ Indinapolis
- The Colts have the number one receiver in the league (by yards) in TY Hilton
- It’s 24 meeting 26 in terms of DVOA rankings with the Colts sitting slightly above the Jags
- The Jags secondary is underrated and the defense overall actually ranks 13th in DVOA
- For all of their faults the Colts have won four more games than the Jags
- Neither team can make the playoffs with a host of players playing for 2017 roster spots
Dallas +4 @ Philadelphia
- The Eagles can’t make the playoffs but the Cowboys have clinched the NFC #1 seed in the playoffs
- The Eagles have won five of their six games at home this season where QB Carson Wentz has looked much more comfortable
- Dallas looks likely to start Dak Prescott but the awful Mark Sanchez is rumoured to be getting snaps on Sunday
- The Cowboys are the number one DVOA ranked team while the Eagles sit 5th (this is one of the faults of the DVOA model).
- Stud Cowboys LT Tyron Smith missed practice today. He and a host of the Cowboys quality offensive linemen’s status are currently up in the air.
- This appears a trap, no-bet game at this stage.
Chicago +6.5 @ Minnesota
- Since taking over as the starting QB, Bears youngster Matt Barkley has showed glimpses of brilliance and has real trade value if the Bears choose to keep Jay Cutler (unlikely)
- It’s 22 v 23 in DVOA overall rankings in a division game where both teams are only playing for price and roster spots
- Chicago has been one of the most hurt teams in Football this season while the Minnesota Vikings offensive line has proved to be a stumbling block to success.
- The Vikings defense has slipped but still ranks inside the top 10 for DVOA. Question marks remain on Sam Bradford’s ability to move the ball 10+ yards even against a team such as the Bears.
Carolina +4.5 @ Tampa Bay
- Tampa are alive in the playoff race but must win to have a shot at getting in while the Panthers are without a chance
- The Bucs rank below .500 at home this season while the Panthers are 2-5 on the road
- The Bucs also sit six spots higher (19th) than the Panthers in terms of overall DVOA
- The Panthers defense has been gashed this season conceding the 27th most yards from scrimmage but have faced some very good offenses that skew that stat
- The Bucs will be without RB Doug Martin while one of their CB’s Vernon Hargreaves has an abdomen injury that limited him in practice today
Cleveland +6 @ Pittsburgh
- The Browns won their first game of the season last week in a lowly game against San Diego at home
- Pittsburgh have clinched the AFC North and a spot in the playoffs
- It’s the #3 ranked DVOA team (Pittsburgh) against the 31st
- The Steelers are riding a six game win streak off the back of improve line play on both sides of the ball
- Superstar Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell will rest on Sunday providing opportunies for DeAngelo Williams and Fitz Toussaint
- After clearing the concussion protocol Robert Griffin III looks set to start at QB for the Browns
New Orleans +7.5 @ Atlanta
- Atlanta have who we believe to be the MVP of the league in Matt Ryan as their quarterback and they have now clinched the NFC South Division
- The Saints cannot make the playoffs and have a stack of players on both sides of the ball playing for roster spots next season
- Falcons coach Dan Quinn said Taylor Gabriel (foot) will be limited today after being held out Wednesday. Julio Jones (toe) will practice. Unclear if full or limited, Quinn said.
- The Atlanta Falcons rank number three in yards from scrimmage and number one in points scored
- The Falcons play in a Dome which should suit Drew Brees and the Saints who also play inside in New Orleans
Doing more with less.
Matt Ryan is No. 3 in the NFL in passing yards (4,613) despite being No. 18 in the league in pass attempts.#MattVP pic.twitter.com/uE7G2RSiM0
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 29, 2016
New England -10 @ Miami
- Both the Patriots and Dolphins have clinched playoff spots with just seeding set to play out although the Patriots have also clinched a first round bye.
- A win to the Patriots ensures they will have home-field for both of their potential AFC playoff games.
- The Patriots are the number two ranked overall DVOA team while Miami rank 15th
- The Dolphins have only beaten one team above .500 all season long and have been the beneficiaries of a very cruisy schedule
- The Dolphins will once again be without Ryan Tannehill while CB Byron Maxwell (ankle) and LB Jelani Jenkins (knee) are also unlikely to play
- The Patriots are unbeaten (7-0) on the road while the Dolphins have lost just one game at home this season
Arizona -6 @ Los Angeles
- Two of the more disappointing teams this season although Arizona (21st) rank nine spots ahead of LA in terms of overall DVOA
- Needless to say, neither team can make the playoffs!
- Arizona is 2-5 on the road while LA is 1-6 at home this season.
- The Cardinals can still hang their hats on a solid defense (6th DVOA) while the Rams defense has proven to be overrated despite the serious talent they have on that side of the ball
- Running back David Johnson has accounted for 38 percent of the Arizona Cardinals’ scrimmage yards this season, the highest percentage in the NFL, per ESPN Stats and Information
Kansas City -5.5 @ San Diego
- The Chiefs are in the playoffs while the Chargers are out.
- The Chiefs (7th) rank 11 overall DVOA points higher than the Chargers
- The Chargers have only won three games at home this season while the Chiefs have won five on the road
- A Chiefs win and a Raiders loss will gift the Chiefs a first round bye and the number two seed in the AFC
- As seems always the case the Chargers offense has been hit hard by injury and Phillip Rivers hasn’t look himself in recent weeks.
- The playmakers on the Chiefs defense will be sniffing a 3+ turnover game
Seattle -10 @ San Francisco
- Seattle clinched another NFC West title and a playoff berth while the 49ers had another season to forget
- It’s number 10 (Seattle) overall DVOA v number 28 while the Seahawks still sit inside the top five for DVOA defense
- Seattle are now without gun safety Earl Thomas which restricts some of the options they have defensively although the 24th ranked 49ers offense is unlikely to exploit it
- The 49ers only motivation is to try and spoil their rivals playoff seeding
- The 49ers pass rush will get plenty of chances to get to Russell Wilson as the Seahawks offensive line has proven to be a weakness all year long
Oakland +1 @ Denver
- No Derek Carr, no Oakland? We will find out soon enough! The Raiders have locked in a playoff berth.
- It’s number eight (Oakland) v number 17 (Denver) in overall DVOA but as noted QB Derek Carr will not play for Oakland
- Denver’s defense still ranks number one in defensive DVOA although the Bronco’s are out of the playoff race
- ESPN reports that Trevor Siemian will start, but Paxton Lynch also will play at QB as the Broncos plan to get an early look at their stock for 2017