Semi-final places will be determined in the final round of group fixtures at the 2017 Confederations Cup this weekend.
The tournament favourites have blown out the cobwebs and are expected to assert themselves in some big mismatches – but that doesn’t mean we haven’t found some tidy betting opportunities.
MEXICO V RUSSIA
In terms of market expectations, Mexico’s clash with Russia is predicted to be the only true ‘contest’ in the final round of Confederations Cup group fixtures.
Mexico has been less than convincing so far in the tournament – twice coming from behind to draw with Portugal, before failing to convert opportunities into scoreboard dominance against lowly New Zealand (albeit winning the match 2-1). Russia is unlikely to be as forgiving.
But the hosts are themselves in the more precarious situation. Barring a minor miracle in Group A’s other fixture, they must win to progress to the semis. But a win may not be out of the question – they failed to score against a disciplined Portugal but had netted nine times in four matches prior.
What is clear is both sides have goals in them – and in a match that would ‘typically’ be expected to be tight with plenty on the line, that creates a betting opportunity. Over 2.5 goals is available at $2.10 and is worth a spec.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1 unit @ $2.10 Ladbrokes, Pinnacle).
NEW ZEALAND V PORTUGAL
Portugal only needs a draw against New Zealand to seal its passage but as their $1.12 quote suggests, three points appears the most likely outcome.
The European Champions dominated their clash with Russia, with their watertight defence particularly impressive. The Russians did not manage a single shot on target and New Zealand would appear even less likely to trouble the goalkeeper.
The Kiwis put in an admirable performance against Mexico despite being thoroughly out-classed. How Mexico only scored twice from 22 shots remains a mystery and Ronaldo and co are unlikely to waste as many opportunities.
Portugal is almost certain to rest a range of big names but will be hoping to use the fixture to boost its goal difference and ensure top billing in Group A. Meanwhile with their slim semi-final hopes dashed, New Zealand may also have one eye on the future and line up changes are expected. In a one-sided encounter, Portugal can be backed with relative confidence to win the game comfortably and the -2.5 handicap is appealing.
Bet: Portugal -2.5 (2 units @ $2.05 Pinnacle).
GERMANY V CAMEROON
They’re not quite dead rubbers, but both Group B clashes on Sunday night (AEST) look to be relatively inconsequential. Only a significant loss for either Germany or Chile will cost them a place in the final four, with both on four points and Cameroon and Australia on one apiece
Anything is possible but Germany looks ready to take its output up a notch and make a statement before the knockout phase. They obliterated Australia in every metric but the scoreboard before showing maturity to fight back from a goal down against Chile. Joachim Low will be eyeing top spot in Group B and the easier path to the final.
Failing to put away Australia – despite enjoying 19 attempts on goal to 5 – may have put the nail in Cameroon’s changes of progression. It is worth remembering that only poor finishing from Chile kept them in their tournament opener and the similar class of the Germans may prove too much for them.
Germany is predicted to turn up the heat here, but Cameroon remains a difficult team to get a handle on. We expect the world champions to win but will shoulder arms on a bet.
Bet: Nil
CHILE V AUSTRALIA
Group B combatants Chile and Australia last met at the 2014 World Cup. If anything, the gap between the sides is greater now than when the South Americans strolled to a 3-1 win in Brazil.
Chile is a polished and professional outfit, with multiple Copa America titles under its belt since that last meeting with the Socceroos. They possess a class attacking duo of Alexis Sanchez and Eduardo Vargas and arguably the world’s most dynamic midfielder, Arturo Vidal. They have pace and skill in abundance and will view this game as the ideal opportunity to enhance their goal difference over Germany.
Australia has failed to gel in its new ‘back three’ formation and legitimate questions are being asked about Ange Postecoglou’s relentless deployment of attacking methods. They were fortunate to hold on against Cameroon and Chile is a level above altogether. The score line could be big.
The South Americans may rest some key players but that shouldn’t negate the gulf in class. Better than even money is available at the -1.5 handicap and that’s enough to play here.