The most hotly anticipated English Championship season in years kicks off this weekend. While Premier League is the largest football league in the world, with historic clubs, big names, global coverage and endless appeal, it is the second tier which has it covered when it comes to betting.
Global interest in the Championship is often confined to the invariable blockbusters of May when the world’s most lucrative playoff matches take place, but the beginning of the season is equally as exciting.
Clubs in this division undergo a raft of off-season changes as ambitious owners catch a whiff of Premier League action that may be just 12 months away. Managerial changes are widespread and players make intriguing moves.
Why would Ruben Neves, the 20-year-old former Porto midfielder and youngest captain in Champions League history, move to Wolves? What lured Garry Monk to the managerial post on the Teeside? And just how far can John Terry, the highest profile signing in Championship history, take Aston Villa?
These are all questions that will be answered in the coming months, but what we do know now is that outright markets are live and evolving for the season ahead.
We have found one clear play which we believe punters should seriously consider making ahead of the 2017-18 Championship season. Tying up your capital for nine months is never easy, but we believe the reward will be there come next May.
OUTRIGHT WINNER
On best available prices, the Championship winner market is $9.00 the field before the season kick off. Such an open market epitomises what punters should love about this league – there is value everywhere.
At the top of that tree is Middlesbrough, the relegated Premier League outfit. We are strongly of the belief that they will be heading straight back up and the $9.00 on offer with William Hill is unmissable value.
Firstly, a statistic. Of the 73 clubs to be relegated in the Premier League era, 20 have immediately returned to the top flight the following year. Of Hull City, Middlesbrough, and Sunderland, only one looks like going straight back up. But more on that later.
We like Middlesbrough because their profile is uncannily similar to that of the second tier’s dominant outfit of 2016-17, Newcastle United.
Like the Magpies, Boro’s response to immediate relegation has been to galvanise the club under a new manager and back him to the hilt in the transfer market. Middlesbrough has retained its best players and spent a fair chunk on proven quality, as their north-east rivals did the year before.
The result of such a strategy for Newcastle was Championship glory, accumulating 94 points with 29 wins and a +45 goal difference under Rafa Benitez. With the impressive Garry Monk at the helm, we envisage the Teesiders doing the same. They have spent £40 million wisely and backed a manager with a known attention to detail.
Middlesbrough’s transfer outlay has been about building from the front. They’ve purchased a quartet of quality attackers in Britt Assombalonga, Martin Braithwaite, Johnny Howson and Ashley Fletcher to complement their existing talent in Patrick Bamford, Rudy Gestede and Gaston Ramirez.
This is shrewd for two reasons. Firstly, in their promotion year of 2015-16 they had the best defensive record in England and have since essentially retained that proven Championship back line.
Secondly, the past three Championships have been won by the team which scored the most goals – before that winners Leicester sat second on the goal tally by one. With Boro’s embarrassment of riches, their goal scorers will remain fresh throughout the gruelling season schedule.
Of course, Middlesbrough are not the only title contenders. Aston Villa ($9.00 Unibet) is the obvious standout with the addition of Chelsea legend John Terry. He would command at least a rotation spot at any Premier League side and can steer this giant club back to the top flight.
After last season’s big spend which amounted to a 13th placed finish, Villa has been forced to simmer down its transfer strategy. New boss Steve Bruce has opt d for solid signings to stabilise the team – Ahmed Elmohamady is a huge addition.
Fulham ($10.00 Unibet) were the equal highest scorers in 2016-17 with Boro but somehow conspired to finish eighth. Flair will not be an issue – but the squad perhaps lacks the grit required to grind out consistent results on those frequent cold, rainy midweek nights.
Wolverhampton ($12.00 Unibet) made headlines with the £20 million acquisition of Ruben Neves. But digging deeper, his arrival and others in recent times look more like smash-and-grabs for both player (looking to showcase himself in England) and club (sell for profit a year later). Their title hopes look slim after finishing 15th last term.
Sheffield Wednesday ($12.00 Unibet) create interest after finishing in the playoff positions in the last two seasons, while Derby ($15.00 Bet 365) ended last season on a high under Gary Rowett and will look to hit the ground running. The arrival of Daniel Farke at Norwich ($15.00 Bet 365) from Borussia Dortmund is also intriguing – a similar formula worked with David Wagner at Huddersfield last term.
But in reality, it is very hard at the current prices to take any position other than backing Middlesbrough early. Aside from an opening day trip to the Molineux to face cashed-up Wolves, their opening six fixtures don’t look, on paper at least, to inspire too much fear.
Their biggest early-season test will come in mid-September with a trip to Villa Park, but we wouldn’t be waiting until them to back them for higher honours. The price will likely be long gone.
Recommended bet: Middlesbrough to win the Championship at $9.00 with William Hill.