THE world’s most watched and highest grossing football league returns this weekend as the new Premier League campaign beginning at the Emirates stadium this Saturday morning.
Twelve months ago the football world had barely recovered from Leicester’s 5000-1 upset of 2015-16, plus a host of continental tournaments, when the English league season resumed.
Big money transfers, rather than high-profile managerial changes, dominate the headlines this time around. Strikers Romelu Lukaku and Alvaro Morata have made expensive moves while Manchester City has splashed hundreds of millions on fullbacks to complete their squad.
But how will the anticipation and transfer outlay be reflected in the betting markets? We take a look at the best value plays in four popular outright markets for the 2017-18 English Premier League season.
WINNER
A huge percentage of the outright winner market has been taken up by three teams this year – Manchester City ($2.80), Manchester United ($4.50) and last season’s champions, Chelsea ($4.50).
Opinions will vary but we’re of the belief the price for both Manchester sides is about right. City has spent big and filled the obvious holes – it appears the club’s owners have given Pep Guardiola everything he wants in their quest for silverware. Jose Mourinho hasn’t quite had his way but did get his main man, Romelu Lukaku. More about the Belgian striker later.
But Chelsea looks unders in this market. They won the league with no European football to distract them last season, but a return to the Champions League without significant additions is a query. They’ll also do it without Diego Costa, banished by Antonio Conte after a 20-goal season for behavioural reasons. His size, pace and deadly eye for goal will be missed and genuine questions abound over his replacement, Alvaro Morata.
Costa’s absence was Conte’s call but he hasn’t had it all his own way. He has brought in midfield and defensive reinforcements but was forced to sell Nemanja Matic against his will and looks a frustrated man at the helm. An early season injury to Eden Hazard stretches this talented squad further and with a difficult first six weeks fixture wise, they look under the odds at this stage.
Tottenham ($11.00), last season’s runners up, have failed to sign any players in the transfer market and look a serious chance of dropping out of the top four altogether should Arsenal ($12.00) or Liverpool ($14.00) mount a challenge. The latter two have been frustrated in their recruitment attempts but key ins and retention in the face of big money plays for Alexis Sanchez and Philippe Coutinho respectively means they should be in a three-way battle with Spurs for fourth.
While there is no clear bet in this market, Chelsea should be monitored as a lay option. They are currently available to oppose at $5.30 on Betfair ahead of a schedule that looks like this: Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Everton (H), Leicester (A), Arsenal (H), Stoke (A), Man City (H). They look a lay-to-back option for punters at this stage.
Suggested bet: Lay to back CHELSEA on Betfair.
Punting Stars is backing Boro’ to win The Championship
TOP SIX
We’ve been over the major league contenders and it is difficult to see those established clubs not making up the top six. But if they were to be challenged, there appears two clear candidates.
The obvious club here is Everton, but they’re also impossible to back at $4.00 to make the top six. Last term they finished seventh, eight points off sixth placed Manchester United which looks set for a surge this season.
It is unlikely they’ve done enough to make up that ground, especially after losing their best player Lukaku to the Red Devils, although boyhood Toffee Wayne Rooney has moved in the opposite direction. Ronald Koeman has splashed the cash on Davy Klaassen, Michael Keane and Jordan Pickford but the loss of Lukaku’s 25 goals is too big to ignore. We couldn’t possibly take the $4.00.
The interesting club here is West Ham. After an average 2015-16, Slaven Bilic has recruited proven Premier League talent in Joe Hart, Pablo Zabaleta, Marko Arnautovic and Javier Hernandez. While the tactic has the potential to backfire, these are players that will thrive on the big stage at the Olympic Stadium. Their experience and winning pedigree will be a huge asset for Bilic , and it only takes one of the established top six to have a below average season for the Hammers to strike. They’re by no means certainties, but $13.00 is a huge price to find out.
Suggested bet: WEST HAM to make the top six @ $13.00 (Bet 365)
RELEGATION
Five sides sit under $4.00 for relegation and all face a struggle to avoid the drop. Promoted outfits Huddersfield ($1.67) and Brighton ($2.20) will do it toughest – their squads, plain and simple, appear to lack depth. What they do have in their favour is canny managers who will get the most out of their limited stocks.
Burnley ($2.30), Watford ($2.80) and Swansea ($3.25) also look set for difficult seasons in the bottom half. Burnley has recruited two Stoke stalwarts in Phil Bardsley and Jonathan Walters, but lost Andre Gray to Watford, which has also added Everton’s Tom Cleverley. Swansea has been fairly absent in the transfer market and their price, at least compared to Burnley and Watford, is a surprise.
But the undeniable value in this market lies in the price for Stoke City. The Potters finished 13th last year in a congested lower half, just four points off 17th. They struggled for goals last term and have lost their most potent outlet in Arnautovic, plus Bardsley and Walters. Their recruitment has been poor, manager Mark Hughes is under pressure and they look a genuine relegation candidate. The $8.00 on offer is ludicrous.
Suggested bet: STOKE CITY to be relegated @ $8.00 (Unibet)
TOP GOAL SCORER
This market is fairly straightforward and it doesn’t take a lot to work out the thinking behind our play here.
Provided he avoids injury, Romelu Lukaku should be winning the golden boot this year. Harry Kane scored 29 goals for runners up Tottenham last term while Lukaku, playing in an Everton side that finished 25 points behind Spurs, bagged 25 goals of his own.
How many will he score in a genuine top four outfit? He’s been on target in the pre-season, fits the Mourinho prototype of a big and pacey striker so should get the service he needs and has already formed a great combination with many of his teammates.
Kane is a worthy favourite, but where Spurs look the most likely ‘top’ side to slip backwards Manchester United look the significant improvers. As such, Lukaku’s $5.00 quote is infinitely more attractive than Kane at $4.25.
Suggested bet: ROMELU LUKAKU to be top goal scorer @ $5.00 (Bet 365)