It’s happened to all of us that are sports and racing fans around the world. One of your mates has a ‘tip’ and you as his friend must also bet on that selection because if it wins and you miss out on the winner you’ll look like a goose.
It’s engrained in us and at times we almost feel obliged to have a bet ourselves regardless of the credibility associated with the information.
For the average Aussie punter it’s almost impossible after receiving some good oil from one of the lads to not go and have a small flutter on it.
It really is built into the culture and gambling landscape in Australia that if your mate gets on, you better jump on too.
As much as we love mateship and camaraderie here at Punting Stars, when it comes to betting, we value profit and protecting our bank even more.
So, here’s why you shouldn’t back that tip your mate sends you.
- Most importantly… It’s very likely that the tip has come without a suggested stake (EG: 1.5 units of a 100 unit bank) or a rated price so you have nothing to gauge how much you should bet on the selection.
- If the tip is on a horse from an owner, stable or jockey or even on a match from a team doctor, player or keen onlooker there is no guarantee that the information is totally true or has been embellished or passed on from source to source diminishing the accuracy. Further to that point, the original provider of the information is not free of any bias as he or she has connection to the horse, player or team.
- If the tip has come directly from your friend there is no guarantee that he or she had put in the required time to price up a market fully for that event. Sure we all know that a team on top of the ladder ‘should win’ against the bottom team but are odds of $1.07 reflective of their true probability of victory?
- There is also no guarantee that your friend has put the required effort into pricing up a market on the race or sporting event. Have they watched film on all the runners, do they have a statistical database? Or are they part of the 90 odd percent of punters who make their betting decision after looking at less than three statistical factors or variables.
- Finally, where do you draw the line? If you must bet every time you get a tip, how many tips are you getting per week and from how many sources? We always say the first step to profitable betting is being accountable. There is something very satisfying knowing that you’ve put in the work and made what you believe to be an educated wager. Regardless of the result if you know you’ve done that as a punter you have a sense of accomplishment because you’ve done things the right way. Blowing $100 on a mates tip that he pulled out of his back pocket will leave you feeling like what you would have had it won and you didn’t back it – a goose!
Overcoming the need, want and obligation of having to have a bet is a key piece of mental strength that will go a long way to greening up your betting ledger.
So next time Robbo says you need to load up on the Lakers – say thanks but no thanks mate and stick to your own plan!