Nothing frustrates a successful gambler more than being called a tipster. Tipsters on the other hand are happy to be called punters. Here’s why;
Tipsters generally are just tipping the horse, team or outcome that is most likely to win or occur.
Punters are betting on outcomes that give them the best chance to turn a profit over the journey.
Punters do this by betting on outcomes that are ‘value’.
That is, where the probability of the event occurring is greater than the probability that the betting odds are implying.
******** Understanding probability *******
Television tipsters aren’t responsible for a betting bank and are not held responsible for results.
Successful punters eat value – otherwise, they don’t eat at all.
Winning on the punt isn’t just about backing winners. It’s about backing winners at the right prices.
Here’s a great example;
Sky Racing Tipster had nine tips at Randwick yesterday.
Race 1 #1 that runs third
Race 2 #10 that misses a place
Race 3 #7 that wins @ $1.70
Race 4 #8 that wins @ $1.40
Race 5 #1 that runs last
Race 6 #2 that runs second
Race 7 #1 that wins @ $1.20
Race 8 #2 that wins @ $2.20
Race 8 #9 that runs third.
A total of four winners from the nine tips.
An even $100 bet on each of the selections would cost a punter $900.
Despite four winners and a strike rate of 44% the tipster only returns a total of $650.
Thus resulting in a $250 loss for the punter who followed his tips.
If you’re having a bet at #Quirindi today, take a look at Gary Harley’s selections.
Fields & form: https://t.co/65apX92P0u #Skytips pic.twitter.com/zlLdH9dTDb
— Sky Racing (@SkyRacingAU) February 24, 2017
Successful punter Bob had five bets at Randwick
Race 2 #5 that misses a place
Race 5 #2 that wins @ $5.50
Race 6 #1 that misses a place
Race 7 #11 that runs second
Race 8 #7 that misses a place
Bob’s strike rate is only 20% for the day but an even $100 bet on all five selections that would cost him $500 returned $550 thanks to his $5.50 winner in Race 2.
That’s good for $50 of profit or 10% profit on turnover.
Who would you rather follow? Bob or old mate on the Television who’s most likely a losing punter?
Tipsters focus on fluffy strike rates and cheap winners.
Punters focus on profit on turnover and finding value.