Futures Betting is available on both sports and racing events. We’re here to tell you what it is, where to be cautious and where to search for an edge in such markets.
Futures betting is a bookmaker’s bread and butter.
Large margins and normally a long lead-in until the event means they can craft a green book very easily.
Futures betting is betting on the outcome of an event in the future, as the name would suggest.
Examples of Sports Futures betting would be
- NBA MVP Winners
- AFL Premiership Winners
- EPL Golden Boot Winners
- NRL Wooden Spoon Winners
In horse racing betting, it occurs when the bookmaker prices up a market prior to the final field being declared and the barrier draw taking place.
In such events, if your horse is scratched in the lead-up to the event or simply doesn’t even accept to run in the race you WILL NOT receive a refund
RELATED: Understanding Probability as it relates to betting odds
| Decimal odds | Implied probability | Decimal odds | Implied probability |
| $1.10 | 90.91% | $2.20 | 45.45% |
| $1.20 | 83.33% | $2.40 | 41.67% |
| $1.30 | 76.92% | $2.60 | 38.46% |
| $1.40 | 71.43% | $2.80 | 35.71% |
| $1.50 | 66.67% | $3.00 | 33.33% |
| $1.60 | 62.50% | $3.20 | 31.25% |
| $1.70 | 58.82% | $3.40 | 29.41% |
| $1.80 | 55.56% | $3.60 | 27.78% |
| $1.90 | 52.63% | $3.80 | 26.32% |
| $2.00 | 50.00% | $4.00 | 25.00% |
Benefits of Futures Betting
- At times the odds can be very attractive
- Your money stays ‘alive’ for a long time so you can get good bang for your betting buck
- You can trade throughout a season to build a green book
- Bookmakers and oddsmakers do not put as much time into these markets as weekly games and daily races
Risks and disadvantages of Futures Betting
- You tie up your capital for a long period of time
- Lots of betting options mean that each option has a small margin tacked onto it
- The above means that you’ll be betting into markets with really high bookmaker percentages
- There is no guarantee that your runner in a horse race will even start in the race
- It’s often hard to get set for a decent bet with bookmakers on these events.
What percentage do Bookmakers bet on futures markets?
A typical money-line or spread bet on a sporting game with a bookmaker will see the punter betting against a margin ranging from 103-106%.
Futures betting on outright events such as tournament winners and large field horse races can start at around 115% and often get as high as 150%.
Let’s take a look at some futures markets out there currently and the percentages the bookies are betting.
Here’s an odd one, but a market that will be very popular once the US Election finds its way back into mainstream media news.
Sportsbet have a stack of options in their market but are betting a crazy high percentage.
Even if we stopped calculating the market at Mark Zuckerberg they’d be betting a margin of 130% and yet they’ve still got another 30 betting options in their market after Zuck!
Ladbrokes like all Aussie bookies are betting on the AFL Premiership winner and yet are betting a percentage of 117%.
Let’s take a look at a Horse Racing Futures Bet with popular Australian bookmaker CrownBet.
Seven days out from next Sunday’s (Saturday US Time) Kentucky Derby, CrownBet is betting a 159% futures all-in market on the race.
The reason why bookies bet such high percentages is because events in the future are much harder to price up than regular games and races because there are so many more variables and possible outcomes.
Anyway, now that you know the kind of head start the bookmaker has, you’ll have a better understanding as to why you’ll need to be very confident in your edge to consider a bet in such markets.
How and where to find an edge on Futures Betting markets
Now we aren’t saying that betting on futures markets is for mugs.
Certainly, they are markets that recreational punters love betting into and the bookmakers welcome them with open arms.
However, there is often an edge there and if you’re willing to let your capital sit for a while there is still angles for you to profit on.
When betting on Horse Racing futures, consider these tips;
- The biggest job you have is identifying the chances of each runner in the market of actually ending up racing in that race. So, listen out to hints from trainers, jockeys and news outlets and rule a line through runners in the market you don’t think will even appear in the race.
- Study the lead-in races and work out the kind of preparation your horse will need to have to win a race.
- Steer clear of popular runners that bookmakers know will be overbet, they’ll likely be under the odds!
When betting on Sports Betting futures, consider these tips;
- Don’t get carried away with small sample sizes. EG: If Richmond win the first five games of the season against average opposition, don’t rush to bet on them to win the Premiership if they are playing Adelaide, GWS and the Western Bulldogs in coming weeks.
- Steer clear of popular teams and players that bookmakers know punters will overbet, they’ll likely be under the odds as well!
Good luck if you dare to play in these markets, feel free to share your tips and futures betting plays with us on Twitter!
As always, good punting!